What is it?

The scenario method is a strategic and learning process.

Its focus is most often explorative (plausible futures), but can also be normative (desirable futures).

Its value proposition is to provide strategic orientation based on a systematic exploration of environmental uncertainties.



Scenarios in 4 steps
 

Identify critically important uncertainties in the global (business) environment's future (typically 5 to 20 years) and their 2 to 5 plausible effects.

Create 2 to 5 contrasted future scenarios of the environment from the coherent combination of one effect of each uncertainty.

Project your business/topic in each environmental scenario:
How does success would look like in this environment? What would need to change?

On that basis, identify decisions and actions that are said “robust”, i.e. that cover most scenarios.